Why would your opponent suddenly start playing like Phil Ivey or Kristen Foxen, when they've already shown you over and over that they're purely recreational players? As poker author Topher Goggin explains, recreational tigers rarely change their stripes.
'Improve Your Poker Now!' by Topher Goggin and Alexander Fitzgerald is available as an ebook or paperback from D&B Poker.
You’re a couple hours into a tournament at your local casino. The field isn’t terribly strong — a hodge podge of locals who play for fun and tourists in town for the weekend. The players at your table seem pretty tight, so you’ve opened things up and picked up some extra pots.
Then it happens. You open preflop, perhaps a touch on the frisky side. A tight, conservative player on your left raises. This guy doesn’t look like he’s gotten out of line since MTV was popular, so you make an easy fold.
An orbit or two later, another tight player three-bets you. As before, you dutifully fold, now a bit more frustrated. Soon after, it happens a third time. This is the third person to come after you in twenty minutes. The smoke is starting to come out of your ears. You reach for chips. After all, they’re just messing with you now, right?
Probably not. Fans of poker coach and author Alex Fitzgerald (below) will recognize this example as one of his favorites. It’s human nature here to assume you’re being targeted. Just like it seems like you’re the only one who always picks the wrong checkout lane at the grocery store, this feels like a bell is going off to alert the table every time you open a bit light.
Stay on target
While it’s possible that the world is suddenly out to get you, don’t bet on it. Remember, this is a local tournament stocked with recreational players. Alex’s insight, informed by data from years of coaching low- and mid-stakes students, is simple. Recreational tigers rarely change their stripes.
It’s just not likely that you’re being targeted, especially by weak competition. Most of your opponents are barely paying attention. They’re on their phones or watching the game on the TV. They’re not all studying you in hopes of running a wild play, risking chips with a maneuver that is the polar opposite from their norm.
You’ve watched these folks nit it up for two hours. It’s much more likely they just picked up a couple of premium hands against your raises. It happens. The last thing you want to do is start recklessly calling or four-betting with weak holdings, bloating pots out-of-position, when you could easily be crushed.
You have a huge advantage at this table, wielding a big stack against players who don’t enjoy facing aggression. Don’t jeopardize that with one moment of impatience.
To be clear, if the trend continues, or these opponents actually start showing down questionable hands after three-betting, then you can (and should) adjust. Until then, however, don’t assume that they’ve suddenly transformed into Phil Ivey and Kristen Foxen.
Broadening the application
This is just one example of a critical principle for playing against non-elite competition. It’s a point Alex and I return to constantly. Don’t give your opponents more credit than they deserve.
Recreational players make mistakes all the time. In fact, they make the same mistakes over and over. We need to pound on those errors. And we shouldn’t stop pounding until someone proves that they are onto us.
Sometimes a different context is helpful, so think of this. I announce local football on the radio. Often I will watch a team with a great rushing attack run straight down the field. They’re just bigger and stronger than the opposition. They have no need to throw the ball. They just run. Seven yards, eleven yards, eight yards, nineteen yards. They might as well be in a parade.
Then, inexplicably, they throw a pass. In theory, they are 'mixing it up' to keep the opponent on their toes. But passing isn’t their strong suit, and the pass gets intercepted.
Hindsight makes it obvious, but this is a Grade-A, self-inflicted blunder. Running the ball was working just fine. The opponent may have known what was coming, but they could not stop it. The offensive team had no reason to deviate from their bread and butter. The answer was simple: keep running.
Don’t outthink yourself
Poker is no different. Players get caught up in the idea of 'balancing' — varying their actions in similar situations to keep opponents off balance. Against elite foes, balancing is mandatory. Against Joe Schmoe, it will cost you money.
Sure, if you do the same thing every time, an observant, highly-skilled player will pick you apart in a hurry. But most recreational players aren’t observant, and they certainly aren’t highly skilled. Even if someone is paying close enough attention to realize what you’re up to, that doesn’t mean they are capable of doing anything about it. When you find a play that works at a table of recs, the best plan is usually to keep running it until your adversaries prove they have correctly adjusted.
Keeping your foot on the gas
How might this look in practice? Plenty of choices are plausible. Maybe it’s check-raise bluffing against tight players. Or maybe it’s betting hands like second pair on the river for value against folks who never fold.
Sometimes it’s even simpler. Suppose you identify an opponent who plays classic ‘fit-or-fold’ poker, refusing to call a flop c-bet unless they connect strongly with the board. Smashing flops is challenging. You start c-betting constantly against this player, taking down multiple pots when you’ve totally whiffed. You’re raking in chips you don’t deserve.
Resist the urge to start checking back out of fear they are going to realize what you’re doing and adjust. It just doesn’t happen that often. If you encounter a player like this, continue blasting them until they show that they can fight back with a middling hand.
Instead of truly adapting, most players like this think, 'As soon as I flop a big one, I’m totally putting an end to this.' But that 'big one' can take a long time to arrive. When an opponent like this does finally respond, you can be pretty darn sure they are strong and just get out of their way.
Nowhere is this more important than on a tournament bubble. If your table becomes overly tight near the money, take advantage and don’t stop. If you’re winning a bunch of pots uncontested preflop, that’s your cue to keep raising. Don’t slow down from fear that this might be the hand when they’ll finally decide that enough is enough.
Stick to what’s working
Too many times, recreational players give their opponents credit for being Doug Polk when those foes actually play more like Dougie, the Polka King. Just like you shouldn’t assume that the tight opponents who suddenly three-bet in the first example had become maniacs, avoid jumping to the conclusion that weak players are about to catch onto what you’re doing.
Don’t outplay yourself by assuming your previously clueless adversaries are now geniuses. Make them prove that they can stop you. Don’t make the game any harder than it needs to be. Stick with what’s working and keep taking their chips.
'Improve Your Poker Now!' by Topher Goggin and Alexander Fitzgerald is available as an ebook or paperback from D&B Poker.
Additional images courtesy of PokerGO/Joe Giron.
