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What are the odd's of having 2 Quads in the same hand?

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  • What are the odd's of having 2 Quads in the same hand?

    Just read an article that went as follows:



    So player 1 slow plays everything, player 2 has 9s full of Qs post flop and a quad by the river. I was talking about it in the office with a colleague and I was telling him that's possibly the worst bad beat I've ever seen. Well, he piped up that he see's stuff like that, and I quote, "all the time".


    Is there anybody who could calculate the odds of 3 people getting pocket pairs, then Player 1 flops a Quad and Player 2 flops a full house at the same time and then ends up being beat on the river despite hitting Quad himself?

    I don't think those odds would be very good...
    "You can't play the next hand if you don't have any money."

  • #2
    Yeah, your colleague is full of shit.

    His credibility is questionable from this point on.

    Comment


    • WSOP_n_2020
      WSOP_n_2020 commented
      Editing a comment
      It already was, lol!

  • #3
    Perhaps your friend meant that he sees bad beats all the time. I am sure we can all attest to that. I would hope that he didn't mean he saw quads over quads all the time. I can't remember a time that I have witnessed that specific scenario.

    Comment


    • WSOP_n_2020
      WSOP_n_2020 commented
      Editing a comment
      Check out the link below posted by PokerBricxjo. It has an awesome video of such a scenario in the Party Poker World Open. Also, interesting that Pricey says it happens quite frequently on the Global Poker site.........hmm.

  • #4
    Originally posted by WSOP_n_2020 View Post
    Just read an article that went as follows:



    So player 1 slow plays everything, player 2 has 9s full of Qs post flop and a quad by the river. I was talking about it in the office with a colleague and I was telling him that's possibly the worst bad beat I've ever seen. Well, he piped up that he see's stuff like that, and I quote, "all the time".


    Is there anybody who could calculate the odds of 3 people getting pocket pairs, then Player 1 flops a Quad and Player 2 flops a full house at the same time and then ends up being beat on the river despite hitting Quad himself?

    I don't think those odds would be very good...
    So, first of all, it is about 6% probability of getting a pocket pair. But strange things happen when you get 6 or more players at the table. Everyone at the table has that 6% chance of getting a pocket pair. So your chances of meeting a better pocket pair looks like this:
    Click image for larger version  Name:	probabilities.JPG Views:	1 Size:	83.8 KB ID:	3109

    The probability of getting quads should actually have a chart for the probability of meeting higher quads like the one above for pocket pairs, but it is so highly unlikely, I have never seen one. So here is some simplified math of the chances of quads meeting quads heads-up, but you should keep in mind that with 9 players at the table the odds would be a whole lot messier like the table above. But still in the realm of the odds of getting struck by lightning.

    If you have a pair, you hit quads by the river 0.8163% 1:122
    If two players have a pair, both hit quads by the river 0.0026% 1:38,915

    This situation only factors in heads up like the above hand, and if both players have pocket pairs. It would change if the second player needed 3 cards on the board for their quads.

    The math may be off a bit in places, I am sure someone will come along and correct me if I am wrong.

    I never did answer your question about what the probability of 3 people getting pocket pairs and then 2 getting quads. I don't know how to get there, but I think the odds I can calculate indicate that the odds are still pretty unlikely. (still certainly better than your odds in winning a multi-state lottery jackpot, but we still buy tickets)
    Last edited by PokerBricxjo; 11-06-2018, 10:16 AM.
    Good luck to you,
    Brian


    Anyone needing an ACR account please support the forum by creating one here: http://bit.ly/PokerForumACR

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    • #5
      I did once hit quads two hands in a row and someone at the table asked how much I bribed the dealer. It has happened only once and I expect it will never happen again. I did go on to win that tourney, but the thing about those two hands is that; although they did go to showdown, they were not all-in, so they improved my stack but were not the deciding factor of the tourney.
      Good luck to you,
      Brian


      Anyone needing an ACR account please support the forum by creating one here: http://bit.ly/PokerForumACR

      Comment


      • #6
        Here is a fun article to read about odds
        Quads over quads? Set over set over set? One outers? Read our breakdown of the true statistics behind poker odds and how often "long shot" odds really hit.
        Good luck to you,
        Brian


        Anyone needing an ACR account please support the forum by creating one here: http://bit.ly/PokerForumACR

        Comment


        • #7
          I have seen quads get beat by quads on Global Poker quite a bit . That is the only site in all my years playing I have seen various people hitting quads on a regular basis lol
          Don't Be The Same....Be Better!

          Comment


          • WSOP_n_2020
            WSOP_n_2020 commented
            Editing a comment
            Interesting......thanks for sharing!

        • #8
          Originally posted by PokerBricxjo View Post

          So, first of all, it is about 6% probability of getting a pocket pair. But strange things happen when you get 6 or more players at the table. Everyone at the table has that 6% chance of getting a pocket pair. So your chances of meeting a better pocket pair looks like this:
          Click image for larger version Name:	probabilities.JPG Views:	1 Size:	83.8 KB ID:	3109

          The probability of getting quads should actually have a chart for the probability of meeting higher quads like the one above for pocket pairs, but it is so highly unlikely, I have never seen one. So here is some simplified math of the chances of quads meeting quads heads-up, but you should keep in mind that with 9 players at the table the odds would be a whole lot messier like the table above. But still in the realm of the odds of getting struck by lightening.

          If you have a pair, you hit quads by the river 0.8163% 1:122
          If two players have a pair, both hit quads by the river 0.0026% 1:38,915

          This situation only factors in heads up like the above hand, and if both players have pocket pairs. It would change if the second player needed 3 cards on the board for their quads.

          The math may be off a bit in places, I am sure someone will come along and correct me if I am wrong.

          I never did answer your question about what the probability of 3 people getting pocket pairs and then 2 getting quads. I don't know how to get there, but I think the odds I can calculate indicate that the odds are still pretty low. (still certainly better than your odds in winning a multi-state lottery jackpot, but we still buy tickets)
          Very informed answer! 5 out of 5 stars brother!

          I was pretty close with the odd's in my head, based off your information above. As far as bad beats go, this one is right up there on top. Sometimes the card gods are just not in your favor!

          Peace!
          "You can't play the next hand if you don't have any money."

          Comment


          • #9
            Originally posted by PokerBricxjo View Post
            Here is a fun article to read about odds
            Great Article! I will quote it here:

            "Well, the odds for that are pretty slim: With two players holding a pocket pair both will hit quads by the river roughly once every 39,000 attempts!!! Factoring in the odds of having two players being dealt pocket pairs before the flop, you’ll see such a scenario at a full-ring table only once every 313k hands – for most live poker players, this already is a once-in-a-lifetime scenario."

            Amazing! Thanks Brian!
            "You can't play the next hand if you don't have any money."

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